11/28 - LOOK TO BUY EUR/USD

The US Dollar Index is probing the 50% retracement of the false-break correction and the key 20-day SMA. This is potentially viewed as wave B within an A-B-C correction that targets the previous impulse's fourth wave base near the 83 handle. Typically wave B retraces 61.8% before beginning the symmetrical C wave. A sustained clearance of the 87.05 will negate and re-open the key fibonacci retracement level (78.6% of 2005 high - 2008 low) near 88.00.

Strategy Summary: BUY EUR/USD AT 1.2607 FOR 1.3285 1st TARGET, STOP AT 1.2552

11/13 - US DOLLAR'S FALSE-BREAK?

The Dollar index has once again attained new highs after breaking out of a triangle consolidation pattern earlier this week (thanks to the British Pound) while the key component, namely the EUR/USD has not reached new lows. The DXY is looking at a possible false-break pattern and would confirm with a close below today's opening level of 87.560 (ie reversal day). Spot Crude Oil looks like a possible reversal day as well. If these pan out, it could be a positive for the overall market as these have proven to be leading indicators. Below 20-day MA support would signal a shift in momentum and would suggest that the fifth and final wave from the July lows was a "truncated fifth." The ensuing A-B-C correction will target the base of the fourth wave/triangle pattern which is near the 83 handle.

Strategy Summary: LOOK TO BUY EUR/USD

11/6 - WAVE D COMPLETED IN TRIANGLE PATTERN

The US Dollar Index has completed three obvious waves (2 impulses and 1 corrective) since bottoming in July and is currently consolidating within the fourth (corrective) wave. Both the Dollar Index and EUR/USD are near completion of wave D within an unfolding triangle pattern. In Elliot wave analysis, triangles are usually evident in the fourth wave of a motive structure and usually are completed when wave E terminates. If this holds true, the dollar should break-out to the upside towards 91.00 (triangle projection) and complete the fifth and final wave. Only a loss of 20-day MA support shifts momentum to the downside.

Strategy Summary: LOOK TO RE-SELL EUR/USD

11/5 - TOOK PROFIT ON SHORT EUR/USD POSITION

US DOLLAR INDEX: Expect dollar strength while 20-day moving average support remains in-tact.

Strategy Summary: SHORT EUR/USD FROM 1.4152 TOOK PROFIT AT 1.3065 (+1087 PIPS)

11/4 - SHORT EUR/USD POSITION ADJUSTED

US DOLLAR INDEX: Expect dollar weakness with the loss of 20-day moving average support.

Strategy Summary: SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.4152 FOR 1.2445 (3rd TGT) ADJUSTED STOP at 1.3065