7/31 - USD & EUR/USD POSITIONS STOPPED FOR PROFIT

US DOLLAR INDEX: Fails at pivot, remains bullish while above 100-day MA

Strategy Summary:

LONG USDX AT 72.56 STOPPED FOR PROFIT AT 72.92

SHORT EUR/USD POSITION STOPPED FOR PROFIT (remaining 1/2) AT 1.5640

7/30 - LONG USD POSITION EYES FIRST TARGET

US DOLLAR INDEX: Consolidates around 61.8% retracement


Strategy Summary:

LONG USDX AT 72.56 FOR 73.71 (1st TARGET), 74.22 (2nd TARGET), STOP AT 72.92 (ADJUSTED)


SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.5740 FOR 1.5400 (NEXT TARGET) STOP AT 1.5640

7/29 - SHORT EUR/USD POSITION MEETS 1ST TARGET

US DOLLAR INDEX: RIPS THROUGH 73.02


Strategy Summary:

LONG USDX AT 72.56 FOR 73.71 (1st TARGET), 74.22 (2nd TARGET), STOP AT 72.92 (ADJUSTED)….……….……………

SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.5740 1/2 OFF AT 1.5580 (1st TARGET), 1.5400 (NEXT TARGET) STOP AT 1.5640

7/28 - LONG USD (EUR/USD SHORT) TARGETS ADJUSTED

US Dollar Index – Hovering between pivot and 100-day MA

The US Dollar Index is once again probing a 50% retracement level (72.85). The last time was the beginning of July when the 20-day MA halted the USD’s advance, eventually leading to a capitulation that has since based. More importantly, Thursday’s high of 73.02 is near the July rejection and at the exact same point where the April recovery struggled at before moving higher. These two rallies also have the same base points (71.31) and the same rally points (71.86). This implies that above 73.02 projects a test of 73.71 first (78.6% retracement & pivot resistance). We recommend buying the US dollar while price-action remains above the 100-day MA (72.56) for an extension towards 74.22 (June high & 200-day MA). Only below 71.86 (platform base) shifts momentum back to the downside.

Strategy Summary: LONG USDX AT 72.56 FOR 73.71 (1st TARGET), 74.22 (2nd TARGET), STOP AT 72.34….……….……………

SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.5740 FOR 1.5580 (1st TARGET), 1.5400 (2nd TARGET) STOP AT 1.5785

7/25 - LONG USD (SHORT EUR/USD)

The US Dollar Index has probed 72.85 (50% retracement level) since Wednesday. Overbought studies contributed to today’s pullback to the 100-day moving average (72.55) and while sustaining 72.40 (last Friday’s swing high), implies an impulsive wave structure as opposed to a mere A-B-C correction. Moreover, the April recovery started at the same point (71.31) and struggled with similar resistance (73.02). A similar rejection in early July suggests that clearing 73.02 will open 73.71 first (78.6% retracement & pivot resistance), then expose the 200-day MA (74.28). Losing the 20-day MA (72.41) questions the validity of this advance and below 71.86 (platform support) shifts focus back to the downside



Strategy Summary:
LONG USDX AT 72.56 FOR 73.71 (1st TARGET), 74.28 (2nd TARGET), STOP AT 72.34….……….…………… SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.5740 FOR 1.5580 (1st TARGET), 1.5400 (2nd TARGET) STOP AT 1.5785……..………………..

7/24 - ADJUST BUY USD (SELL EUR/USD) ENTRIES

The US Dollar Index surged through 10-day MA resistance on Tuesday, extending yesterday through the 100-day MA to currently probe 72.85 (50% retracement level). Last week’s capitulation completed a five wave structure and has since put in an A-B-C correction. While above 72.40 (also where 20-MA currently sits) suggests an impulsive wave structure that could ultimately test the 200-day MA (currently at 74.30). While short-term studies remain overbought, we recommend buying the US Dollar on dips, with a stop-loss below the 20-day MA.


Strategy Summary: BUY USDX AT 72.56 FOR 74.35 (TARGET), STOP AT 72.34….………………….…….……………

SELL EUR/USD AT 1.5740 FOR 1.5580 (TARGET), STOP AT 1.5785…

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7/23 - BUY USD ON A PULLBACK (SELL EUR/USD)

After three days being stuck below the 10-day MA at 72.19, the US Dollar Index has raced through to probe the 100-day MA at 72.57. Maintaining platform support at 71.86 hinted at a base, price-action in relation to the 10-day MA is what ultimately shifted momentum. Clearing the 100-day MA, immediately focuses 72.85 (50% retracement), then the 200-day MA (currently at 74.33). We recommend buying the US Dollar on a pullback to the 20-day MA with a stop-loss below the 10-day MA.



Strategy Summary:

BUY USDX AT 72.36 FOR 74.35 (TARGET), STOP AT 72.14….………………….……

SELL EUR/USD AT 1.5810 FOR 1.5666 (TARGET), STOP AT 1.5865

7/22 - LONG EUR/USD MEETS TARGET, BUY USD

The US Dollar Index reversed last week and is now above the 10-day moving average at 72.18, which had capped price-action the previous three days. Platform support at 71.86 held up earlier, underpinning the EUR/USD below its 20-day MA support at 1.5817 and the USD/JPY above its 200-day MA (currently at 107.09). The US Dollar Index is now poised to eclipse the 100-day moving average at 72.58 and target the 200-day MA at 74.35. We now recommend buying the US Dollar on a pullback to the 10-day MA with a stop-loss below platform support.


Strategy Summary: SHORT USDX FROM 72.40 MET 71.86 TARGET, BUY AT 72.18 FOR 74.35, STOP AT 71.84

LONG EUR/USD FROM 1.5816 MET 1.5932 TGT, SELL@ 1.5825 FOR 1.5666, STOP@ 1.5878

7/21 - SHORT USD, LONG EUR/USD MEETS 1ST TARGET

The US Dollar Index reached 71.31 last Tuesday, matching a daily pivot from March & April, ahead of Wednesday’s reversal day. This also completed a five wave count and has led to the third straight day in which the 10-day moving average has been under pressure. Current consolidation between the 10-day MA (currently at 72.27) and platform support at 71.86 should precede the next breakout. While we continue to recommend shorting the US Dollar, if the EUR/USD loses its 20-day MA support (currently at 1.5806) and if the USD/JPY can reclaim and maintain the 200-day MA (currently at 107.14), this will thrust the US Dollar Index through a cluster of moving averages (10, 20, 100-day MA’s) and shift momentum towards the 200-day MA at 74.38. If however, platform support is lost at 71.86, then 71.31 is likely to be re-tested.




Strategy Summary: SHORT USDX AT 72.40 FOR 71.86 (1st TGT) 71.50 (2nd TGT), STOP AT 72.45 (REVISED)
LONG EUR/USD FROM 1.5816 TOOK ½ OFF AT 1.5890, 1.5932 (TARGET), STOP AT 1.5806 (REVISED)

7/18 - SHORT USD, LONG EUR/USD

The US Dollar Index spiked below 71.86 (May trough) reaching 71.31 (daily pivot) on Tuesday. Wednesday’s reversal day ended a series of intra-day lower high’s and since clearing former channel support at 72.14, the 10-day average has been probed (currently at 72.32). We continue to recommend shorting the US Dollar while trading below the 10-day for a possible re-test of 71.31, if platform support at 71.86 is lost. If the EUR/USD loses its 20-day support (currently at 1.5798) and if the USD/JPY can reclaim the 200-day (currently at 107.11), this will thrust the US Dollar Index through a cluster of moving averages (10, 20, 100-day) and shift momentum towards the 200-day moving 74.44

Strategy Summary: SHORT USDX AT 72.40 FOR 71.86 (1st TGT) 71.50 (2nd TGT), STOP AT 72.40 (REVISED)

LONG EUR/USD FROM 1.5816 FOR 1.5890 (1st TGT) 1.5932 (2nd TGT), STOP AT 1.5772 (REVISED)

7/17 - SIGNS OF A USD BOTTOM, SELL INTO RALLIES

The US Dollar Index lost 10-day support last week, underpinning a spike lower that rejected at 71.31 (daily pivot). Although, bull channel support has been lost, the fact that price-action has held up around 71.86 (May trough) highlights possible platform support. Wednesday’s reversal day ended of a series of intra-day lower top’s, suggesting a move to 72.35/45 (10-day moving average/ 38.2% retracement) if former channel support turned resistance at 72.14 is broken. We continue to recommend shorting the US Dollar while trading below the 10-day & 20-day moving averages. An early clue to a possible shift in our strategy will be whether the EUR/USD can maintain 10-day support (currently at 1.5827) and if the USD/JPY can reclaim the 50-day (currently at 105.80). Other factors to watch will be whether the GBP/USD can maintain 2.00 and it’s 200-day (currently at 1.9960) and if the USD/CAD can maintain support near parity and the 200-day (currently at .9992).



Strategy Summary: SELL USDX AT 72.40 FOR 71.314 (TARGET), STOP AT 72.65
LONG EUR/USD FROM 1.5816 FOR 1.5932 (REVISED TARGET), STOP AT 1.5777 (REVISED STOP)

7/16- SELL USD AT 72.40, BUY EUR/USD AT 1.5816

The US Dollar Index lost 10-day support last week, underpinning the latest spike downward. A rejection at the 71.31 daily pivot (Spring ‘08 lows), buoyed a recovery back to the latest swing low just above 72.00. More importantly, today’s price-action has ended a trend of intra-day lower top’s and now is expected to test the 72.40 zone that occupies the 10 & 20-day moving average, and the 38.2% retracement. We continue to recommend shorting the US Dollar Index at the 10-day moving average with a tight stop above the 20-day moving average.



Strategy Summary: SELL USDX AT 72.40 FOR 70.50, STOP AT 72.65 LONG EUR/USD AT 1.5816 FOR 1.6148 (TARGET), STOP AT 1.5772

7/15 - MISSED USD SELL, LOOK TO SELL

The US Dollar Index rejected at a key midpoint and the 20-day moving average last week, underpinning an initial move back to the 10-day moving average. After being compressed between the two moving averages for several days, support was lost, leading to the latest capitulation. Previous moves have shown symmetry in regards to their length (2.5 points). If this holds, then a move to 70.50 is projected, marginally below the all-time low. We recommend shorting the US Dollar Index at the 10-day moving average with a tight stop above the 20-day moving average.

Strategy Summary: MISSED SELL USDX , SELL AT 72.25 FOR 70.50, STOP AT 72.65

MISSED BUY EUR/USD, BUY AT 1.5845 FOR 1.6148 (TARGET), STOP AT 1.5805

7/11 - SHORT USD POSITION MEETS TARGET, RE-SELL USD

The US Dollar’s oversold rebound rejected at a key midpoint and the 20-day moving average, underpinning a move back to the 10-day moving average. For several days, price-action was compressed between the two moving averages, until yesterday. The 10-day moving average (now at 72.50) which had provided support over the past few days, reverted to resistance today and has led to a probe below channel support (at 72.11) and a re-test of the May trough (at 71.86). This has confirmed a lower top, but due to oversold conditions, we anticipate consolidation before moving any further down. However, a failure to reclaim the 10-day moving average suggests a capitulation style move towards the March lows.




Strategy Summary : SHORT USDX POSITION MET TARGET, SELL AT 72.40 FOR 71.50, STOP AT 72.66 BUY EUR/USD AT 1.5833 FOR 1.6048 (1st TARGET), STOP AT 1.5781

7/10 - POSITIONS STOPPED OUT, SELL USD

The US Dollar Index’s oversold recovery has struggled with the 20-day moving average, highlighting the failure to reclaim the upper portion of a multi-month bull channel. Also, the 10-day moving average (now @ 72.57), which had provided support since rebounding, has been breached with the latest retreat. A sustained loss will damage the dollar’s outlook and re-expose last week’s lows near 72.00. We recommend a short position (buying eur/usd) with a stop-loss above the 20-day moving average (72.94).

Strategy Summary : LONG USDX POSITION STOPPED OUT, SELL AT 72.60 FOR 72.06, STOP AT 72.94
SHORT EUR/USD POSITION STOPPED OUT, BUY AT 1.5727 FOR 1.5872, STOP AT 1.5687

7/8 – LONG USD (SHORT EUR/USD)

The US Dollar Index is now probing the half-way mark of an amended bull channel. The 10-day moving average (now @72.58), which provided resistance in late June, is now supporting. The previous 3 rebounds amounted to 2.5 point up moves, a similar sized move would project a test of channel resistance @74.50.


Strategy Summary : LONG USDX AT 72.60 FOR 74.50 (NEW TARGET), REVISED STOP AT 72.53
SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.5727 FOR 1.5355 (NEW TARGET), REVISED STOP AT 1.5746