7/25 - LONG USD (SHORT EUR/USD)

The US Dollar Index has probed 72.85 (50% retracement level) since Wednesday. Overbought studies contributed to today’s pullback to the 100-day moving average (72.55) and while sustaining 72.40 (last Friday’s swing high), implies an impulsive wave structure as opposed to a mere A-B-C correction. Moreover, the April recovery started at the same point (71.31) and struggled with similar resistance (73.02). A similar rejection in early July suggests that clearing 73.02 will open 73.71 first (78.6% retracement & pivot resistance), then expose the 200-day MA (74.28). Losing the 20-day MA (72.41) questions the validity of this advance and below 71.86 (platform support) shifts focus back to the downside



Strategy Summary:
LONG USDX AT 72.56 FOR 73.71 (1st TARGET), 74.28 (2nd TARGET), STOP AT 72.34….……….…………… SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.5740 FOR 1.5580 (1st TARGET), 1.5400 (2nd TARGET) STOP AT 1.5785……..………………..