Friday, July 11, 2008

7/11 - SHORT USD POSITION MEETS TARGET, RE-SELL USD


The US Dollar’s oversold rebound rejected at a key midpoint and the 20-day moving average, underpinning a move back to the 10-day moving average. For several days, price-action was compressed between the two moving averages, until yesterday. The 10-day moving average (now at 72.50) which had provided support over the past few days, reverted to resistance today and has led to a probe below channel support (at 72.11) and a re-test of the May trough (at 71.86). This has confirmed a lower top, but due to oversold conditions, we anticipate consolidation before moving any further down. However, a failure to reclaim the 10-day moving average suggests a capitulation style move towards the March lows.




Strategy Summary : SHORT USDX POSITION MET TARGET, SELL AT 72.40 FOR 71.50, STOP AT 72.66 BUY EUR/USD AT 1.5833 FOR 1.6048 (1st TARGET), STOP AT 1.5781

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