Monday, July 21, 2008

7/21 - SHORT USD, LONG EUR/USD MEETS 1ST TARGET



The US Dollar Index reached 71.31 last Tuesday, matching a daily pivot from March & April, ahead of Wednesday’s reversal day. This also completed a five wave count and has led to the third straight day in which the 10-day moving average has been under pressure. Current consolidation between the 10-day MA (currently at 72.27) and platform support at 71.86 should precede the next breakout. While we continue to recommend shorting the US Dollar, if the EUR/USD loses its 20-day MA support (currently at 1.5806) and if the USD/JPY can reclaim and maintain the 200-day MA (currently at 107.14), this will thrust the US Dollar Index through a cluster of moving averages (10, 20, 100-day MA’s) and shift momentum towards the 200-day MA at 74.38. If however, platform support is lost at 71.86, then 71.31 is likely to be re-tested.




Strategy Summary: SHORT USDX AT 72.40 FOR 71.86 (1st TGT) 71.50 (2nd TGT), STOP AT 72.45 (REVISED)
LONG EUR/USD FROM 1.5816 TOOK ½ OFF AT 1.5890, 1.5932 (TARGET), STOP AT 1.5806 (REVISED)



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